Small Business Optimism Signals Economic Turnaround, According to Latest FEI Survey

The latest Freedom Economy Index (FEI) Survey, conducted in March 2025, has unveiled a notable shift in economic sentiment among small business owners across the United States. With 68% now forecasting economic growth for the year, this marks a stark contrast to the 57% who, just months earlier in October, were bracing for a recession. This surge in optimism underscores a broader economic resilience and adaptability among small enterprises.

Key findings from the survey include a dramatic increase in hiring intentions, with 32% of small businesses looking to expand their teams, up from a mere 9.5% in October. Concurrently, the proportion of businesses considering layoffs has plummeted to 2.6%, down from 10% in the fall. These indicators not only reflect improved business confidence but also suggest a potential easing of the labor market tensions that have characterized recent years.

Inflation, a persistent challenge for small businesses, shows signs of abating. While nearly 60% of owners still report feeling its impact, this is a significant improvement from the 88% who cited inflationary pressures in October. This easing could herald a more stable operating environment for small businesses, enabling them to plan and invest with greater certainty.

Another area of growth is technological adoption, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI). The survey notes a doubling in the number of small businesses exploring or adopting AI technologies, signaling a growing recognition of the potential for innovation to drive efficiency and competitiveness.

Michael Seifert, CEO of PublicSquare, and Andrew Crapuchettes, CEO of RedBalloon.work, both emphasize the importance of these findings. They highlight that the optimism and proactive strategies of small businesses could be a bellwether for the broader economy, suggesting that these enterprises are not merely surviving but are poised to thrive and expand in 2025.

The FEI Survey's results point to a potential turning point for the U.S. economy, with small businesses leading the charge towards recovery and growth. Their collective sentiment and actions could have far-reaching implications, not just for the business community but for the economic landscape at large.